ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily231130_T Signs back to negative |
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Market today | The SET was unable to stand above 1400 and fell, bringing a technical negative indicator and leading to a continued fall in the index with supports at 1380 and 1370 which are expected to be turning points. The upper bound is limited at resistances of 1400 and 1417. | Today’s highlights | • The MPC unanimously decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50%. They revised this year’s GDP growth forecast down to 2.4% and expect growth of 3.2% next year. However, including the impact of the digital wallet, growth is projected at 3.8%, down from the previously expected 4.4%. In 2024, growth is expected at 3.1%.
• The ERC has decided to increase the electricity tariff for the period of Jan to Apr 2024 by Bt0.69/unit to an average Bt4.68/unit to reflect the rising cost of fuel.
• The FTI is concerned that raising the minimum wage will raise production costs and pressure both prices and inflation. They suggest the government adjust the minimum wage according to skill level.
• S&P maintained Thailand's credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook. The Thai economy is expected to grow by 2.5% this year and 4.2% next year, driven by fiscal measures and the recovery of tourism.
• The EIA reported an increase in US crude oil inventories last week of 1.6mn bbl, more than expected. The storm in the Black Sea region affected oil exports from Russia and Kazakhstan by over 2mn bbl/day, potentially tightening oil supply.
• The second estimate of US GDP growth for 3Q23 shows an expansion of 5.2%, the highest since 4Q21, and higher than the first estimate of 4.9% and the expected 5.0%.
• Christopher Waller, a Fed official, said current Fed interest rates are stringent enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. This contrasts with Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Fed, who expressed uncertainty about US inflation returning to target and suggested the Fed might need to raise interest rates if inflation spikes. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound with no catalyst. The MPC meeting on Nov 29 left interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. Funds are expected to begin to gradually flow into TESG funds as asset management companies will start selling on Dec 1, which will support the stability of the Thai capital market. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound with no new catalyst to stimulate investment. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks in SET50 expected to be selected as investment targets for the TESG fund being set up for long-term stimulus. We select stocks in the SETESG index with two factors of interest: 1) ESG rating of “AAA” or “AA” and 2) prices are down more than the SET YTD – SCGP, OR, CPALL, BEM, GULF, CRC and HMPRO.
2) Big-cap stocks in SET50 placed in the SETESG with a rating of “AAA” and outperforming the SET YTD, with strong profit and dividend yields greater than 5% - PTT and KTB.
In the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be significantly affected by the planned raise in the minimum wage, set to be discussed in the Dec 12 cabinet meeting: Courier Services (KEX), Food (CPF, ZEN, GFPT, TU and AU), Real Estate (LPN, PSH, SPALI, SIRI, QH and AP) and Electronic Components (HANA and KCE). In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost) and Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT). | Daily top picks | BBL: This stock has been included in the SETESG index with an AA rating. Profit is expected to be strong in 4Q23 and 2024, supported by lower credit cost, increasing NIM and growing loans. It also benefits the most from business relocation to ASEAN.
GULF: This stock has been slotted into the SETESG index with an AA rating. We continue to expect strong profit. 4Q23 profit is expected to grow, backed by the startup of another IPP unit (GPD) in Oct and increasing contribution from Jackson Generation. | Today’s reports | No InnovestX Equity report today | |
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