ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily231127_T Limited recovery and may weaken |
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Market today | The SET closed below 1400 and technical indicators are negative, suggesting continued weakening with supports at 1390 and 1380. Recovery is limited at resistances of 1410 and 1415, which it needs to break through in order for the signal to turn positive. Key issues to follow are the MPC meeting and 3Q23 GDP on Wednesday. | Today’s highlights | • WHO says Chinese health authorities have not found any unusual or new pathogens. They have provided information regarding the increase in respiratory diseases and clusters of pneumonia in children, as requested by WHO.
• Japan has detected its first avian flu outbreak of the season and is preparing to cull 40,000 chickens. Hong Kong has ordered the culling of over 1,900 pigs after detecting a second case of African Swine Fever (ASF) in a local farm.
• Grain futures have declined, with soybean contracts falling nearly 2%, following reports of favourable weather conditions in Brazil that could lead to higher crop yields.
• IEA said annual investment in oil and gas businesses of US$800bn may be halved by 2030 if the goal of limiting global warming to an increase of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius is to be achieved.
• CAAT reported 10 Chinese airlines have cancelled flights to Thailand in the next two months (Dec 22-Jan 23), a 39% reduction, primarily due to lower-than-expected tourist numbers from China, largely attributed to the slowing Chinese economy.
• Five major US truck tire manufacturers have accused Thailand of dumping tires in the market, potentially affecting Thai exports of truck tires valued at over Bt50bn. USITC is set to announce its preliminary findings on the matter on Dec 1, 2023.
• Today, the SEC, in collaboration with ASCO, invited members to a meeting to discuss issues related to short-selling, including the collection of commission fees and the placement of collateral, among other topics. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound with no catalyst. There will be an MPC meeting on Nov 29, and interest rate is generally expected to be left unchanged at 2.50%. Funds are expected to begin to gradually flow into TESG funds as asset management companies will start selling on Dec 1, which will support the stability of the Thai capital market. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound with no new catalyst to stimulate investment. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks in SET50 expected to be selected as investment targets for the TESG fund being set up for long-term stimulus. We select stocks in the SETESG index with two factors of interest: 1) ESG rating of “AAA” or “AA” and 2) prices are down more than the SET YTD – SCGP, OR, CPALL, BEM, GULF, CRC and HMPRO.
2) Big-cap stocks in SET50 expected to be selected as investment targets for the TESG fund being set up for long-term stimulus. The stocks are in the SETESG index with a rating of “AAA” and outperform the SET YTD, with strong operating results and dividend yields greater than 5% - PTT and KTB.
In the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be significantly affected by the planned raise in the minimum wage, set to be discussed in the Dec 12 cabinet meeting: Courier Services (KEX), Food (CPF, ZEN, GFPT, TU and AU), Real Estate (LPN, PSH, SPALI, SIRI, QH and AP) and Electronic Components (HANA and KCE). In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost) and Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT). | Daily top picks | BDMS: This stock has been included in the SETESG index with an AA rating. 4Q23 core profit is expected to grow YoY, bringing 2023 core profit growth of 12%, followed by 8% growth in 2024, backed by growing foreign patients, higher revenue from increasing excellence centers and better asset utilization rate.
PTT: This stock has been included in the SETESG index with an AAA rating and is also considered as a defensive stock in the Energy sector. The stock has broad business risk diversification and expansion into green energy and other businesses, that will support profit stability in the long term. Dividend yield is expected at a high 6%. | Today’s reports | TIDLOR – Strongest 2024F earnings among peers | | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily231127_E |
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