ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240626_TWeakening rebound
Market todayThe SET’s recovery is expected to weaken as it was overbought for the short term and funds are still flowing out, putting resistance at 1325, which it needs to break through to continue to move up. Next resistance is at 1335, while next supports are at 1310 and 1300. A fall below this will be a negative indicator. Today’s highlights• Michelle Bowman, a Fed member and permanent member of the FOMC, said it is not yet time to reduce interest rates and is open to raising rates if inflation doesn't decrease.
• FedEx rose after reporting an earnings beat earnings after market close; it also announced a US$2.5bn share buyback.
• FTI reported vehicle production in May at 126,161 units, down 16.19%. It hopes for government economic stimulus policies and hopes the FY2025 budget will boost purchasing power. Next month, it will review its full-year production target again.
• The National Energy Policy Council approved a 2,000 MW pilot project for direct electricity trading to attract foreign investment in data centers. The ERC is preparing detailed criteria, expecting the project to start in early 2025.
• The ERC said the electricity cost trend for Sep-Dec needs further monitoring to ascertain the energy cost situation. It will gather all cost data to calculate the Ft value and announce a public hearing in July.
• FETCO plans to discuss tax fund conditions with the Ministry of Finance on June 28. The Ministry has several ideas to drive the capital market, but it may take 6-9 months. New funds are expected in the second half of 2024.
• GULF's subsidiary is partnering with Google for the cloud business in Thailand. An executive said this is the beginning of strategic cooperation to provide various services, including security, and to expand into AI.Strategy today In the short term, the SET is still volatile and fragile from prolonged pressure from politics and it will continue to underperform the region. However, there are economic hopes lying in industrial production and the release of the MPC minutes that may signal recovery in the manufacturing sector. There is an a new catalyst building confidence in the capital market: raising the maximum investment limit for TESG funds and the uptick measures starting on Jul 1. Externally, there is no new catalyst this week. Follow US PCE in May, which is expected to be stable MoM and 2.6%YoY (slowing from 2.7%YoY in April); this will not exert much pressure on the market. “Selective Buy”.Trading todayPolitical risk is making the Thai capital market volatile and fragile, while there is no new catalyst from outside. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Global plays: Companies whose profit is expected to continue to recover and the benefit from a global recovery will be sufficient to offset domestic turmoil – KCE, SCGP, TU and MINT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implements the uptick rule on July 1, 2024 – HANA, BEM, KCE, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, MINT and TU.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP.Daily top picksCPF: 2Q24 profit is expected to show the most outstanding growth in the food sector, growing QoQ from higher livestock prices at home and in Vietnam and lower animal feed cost; it will also recover from a loss in 2Q23 on higher overseas swine and domestic livestock prices and benefit from selling a loss-generating business in 2H23.
KCE: A global play whose profit is expected to recover in line with the world economy. It benefits from lower copper prices in the short term. 2024 core profit is expected to grow 44.7%, and 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ on high orders for special grade PCB (HDI). In high season in 2H24 it will benefit from higher margin and lower cost.Today’s reportsPetrochemicals – Cost pressure still high Click here to read and/or download file Daily240626_E |
