ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240624_T Limited upper bound
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Market today | The SET is expected to experience a short-term technical rebound. However, the market lacks catalysts, and fund flows continue outward, limiting the upper bound to resistances of 1310 and 1315. Supports are at 1300 and 1290. A fall below support will bring back negative indicators. | Today’s highlights | • US composite PMI in June was the highest in 26 months, boosted by new orders and increased employment. Business confidence has also improved.
• Apple has delayed the launch of three new AI products due to EU technology regulations requiring Apple devices be compatible with competitor products and services.
• Thailand exports in May 2024 reached US$26bn, the highest in 14 months, with 5M24 exports of US$120bn, up 2.6%. Growth is expected to continue in June and 2H24.
• The Ministry of Energy's new Power Development Plan (PDP) includes over Bt1tn in electrical infrastructure investment, focusing on appropriate pricing, balancing security, cost, environment and reducing carbon emissions.
• The government announced Customs duty on goods valued up to Bt1,500, with 7% VAT applicable on items priced from Bt1, effective July 5, 2024.
• The House of Representatives approved the first reading of the FY2025 Bt3.75tn budget bill.
• The Prime Minister ordered the EEC Secretary to expedite the high-speed rail project connecting three airports, along with the U-Tapao Airport development project.
• The Minister of Finance announced changes to the ThaiESG fund, increasing the investment limit to Bt300,000 from Bt100,000 and reducing the holding period to 7 years from 8 years, effective 2024-2026. | Strategy today | In the short term, the SET is still volatile and fragile from prolonged pressure from politics and it will continue to underperform the region. However, there are economic hopes lying in industrial production and the release of the MPC minutes that may signal recovery in the manufacturing sector. Externally, there is no new catalyst this week. Follow US PCE in May which is expected to be stable MoM and 2.6%YoY (slowing from 2.7%YoY in April); this does not heavily pressure the market. “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Political risk is making the Thai capital market volatile and fragile, while there is no new catalyst from outside next week. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Global plays: Companies whose profit is expected to continue to recover and the benefit from a global recovery will be sufficient to offset domestic turmoil – KCE, SCGP, TU and MINT.
2) Stocks which are expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implements the uptick rule on July 1, 2024 – HANA, BEM, KCE, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, MINT and TU.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP. | Daily top picks | TOP: In the short term the company benefits from increasing oil price. Refinery margin has touched bottom and is beginning to recover, led by seasonal demand for gasoline and jet fuel. Aromatics profit is expected to improve from strong product spread driven by tight supply in Asia.
BDMS: A defensive stock whose profit is expected to return to grow as patients come back after Songkran. 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY but decline QoQ due to seasonal factors, and 2024 core profit is expected to grow 13%, backed by higher EBITDA margin and more demand for medical services outside Bangkok. | Today’s reports | Bank – Loans shrink for the second month in a row | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240624_E |
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