กลุ่มธนาคาร – การเติบโตของสินเชื่อและอัตราส่วนสินเชื่อ/เงินฝากดีขึ้นในเดือนส.ค. Move between 1,500-1,523 |
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Market today | The SET is expected to move between 1,500-1,523 with psychological support of 1,500; technical indicators are entering oversold, while concerns the Fed will raise interest rate and keep the rate higher for longer limits to 1,523. A break below 1,500 would be a negative signal, with the next support at 1,490. A break above 1,523 would be a positive signal with next resistance at 1,530. | Today’s highlights | • BoE resolved 5-4 to keep interest rate at 5.25%, surprising the market, which expect a 25 bps raise. This suggests we are at the end of the upward cycle and is a signal the rate may stay high for longer.
• US initial jobless claims decline more than expected and existing home sales in Aug fell more than expected, while the leading economic index (LEI) in Aug had its 17th month of decline, indicating a stagnant economy and signalling a recession next year.
• China plans to relax domestic capital control measures, starting in Shanghai and Beijing, to attract investment capital back to China.
• Russia announced it will temporarily suspend export of oil products, including diesel and gasoline, to stabilize Russia’s fuel market, effective immediately.
• The prime minister plans to change the law allowing free distribution and use of cannabis, allowing it to be used for medical purposes only. The Ministry of Public Health will close the loopholes for recreational use, and will not allow the 15 plants of cannabis per household and return cannabis to some level of narcotics.
• The Ministry of Finance will ask the cabinet next week to form a committee to move forward on the digital wallet policy to launch in time by Feb 1, 2024.
• FTI reported a decline in auto manufacturing in Aug of 12.27%YoY as financial institutions become stricter on approving loans. The 2023 manufacturing target may be adjusted down from 1.9mn units.
• REIC reported a decline in real estate sales in Bangkok Metropolis in 2Q23 of 32%. Developers are asking for three stimulus programs in 2024: promotions for first-home owners, relaxation of LTV and allowing foreigners to own a Thai residence. | Strategy today | The SET is seen to move in a bound of 1,500-1,540 with a new catalyst to stimulate investment. Domestically, follow the government’s additional stimulus packages, while external factors include monetary policy meetings of central banks, the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: There is little on board to move the market as participants wait for the monetary policy meetings of three central banks, the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Companies expected to benefit from the government stimulus packages (cutting electricity and diesel prices, pausing agricultural loans and visa-free entry for Chinese) and whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow YoY or pass bottom – CPALL, CRC, OSP, HTC, AOT, ERW, KCE and HANA.
2) Our 4Q23 top picks – AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE and KTB.
3) Stocks for speculation on better purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price rises (petrodollar theme) – AH, BH, PTTEP and BCP.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | CPALL: Strong profit momentum. 3Q23 profit is expected to be stable or improve QoQ (opposed to the sector, which is expected to decline QoQ) and grow YoY from higher sales and margin in the convenience store business and higher profit share from CPAXT due to lower financial cost after refinancing.
BEM: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow QoQ and YoY in line with higher traffic volume on expressways and MRT. 2023 profit is estimated at Bt3.9bn, growth of 60.6%. | Today’s reports | Bank – Better loan growth and L/D ratio in August |
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