กลุ่มอาหาร – พรีวิว 3Q66: คาดผลประกอบการอ่อนแอ
BAY – 3Q66: ตั้งสำรองมากกว่าคาด
BBL – 3Q66: กำไรออกมาดี, สูงกว่า consensus คาดเล็กน้อย
KTB – 3Q66: ผลประกอบการดีตามคาด
KTC – 3Q66: ผลประกอบการออกมาตามคาด
TTB – 3Q66: กำไรดีเกินคาด เพราะ NIM และ credit cost Limited recovery, still falling |
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Market today | The SET is expected to be pressured by 10-year US bond yield which rose to almost 5% and continuing tension in the Middle East. Next supports are at 1,412 and 1,406, while a recovery is limited by resistances at 1,430 and 1,438. | Today’s highlights | • US initial jobless claims last week fell to the lowest since January, while the Fed chairman’s speech signalled no change in interest rate at the next meeting, but the option to raise is still open.
• Oil price was pushed up by heightened tension in the Middle East. The US said there may be attacks by drones in Iraq and Syria.
• The US temporarily lifted sanctions on exports of oil, gas and gold from Venezuela, believing that Venezuela is moving forward to a transparent election.
• The prime minister said in a signing ceremony for tourism cooperation with China in Beijing that the government is considering cancelling the requirement that China citizens acquire a visa to enter Thailand and asked China to also cancel the visa requirement for Thais. The TAT governor said the prime minister is planning to temporarily give Taiwan and India passport holders visa-free entry and will exempt the filing of an immigration form for Malaysians entering via Sadao checkpoint.
• The Ministry of Finance plans to cut gasoline tax, saying it is ready to cooperate with the government to cut gasoline price to ease cost of living. It said it is closely monitoring the Israel-Hamas situation.
• The Deputy Minister of Finance said details regarding the source of funds and conditions for the distribution of the digital wallet have not yet been concluded, which mean a postponement in the digital wallet, now planned for Feb 1, 2024, but an attempt will be made to at least issue this within 1Q24. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to able to recover and rebound. Although the market is still concerned over the war in Israel, Fed officials still support the ending of the upward cycle for interest rate, causing US bond yield to slow down and the US dollar to weaken (baht back to appreciate). Also, there are expectations that China will release a 1 trillion-yuan stimulus package and buy into the energy sector to support the stock market index. Our strategy is: take this opportunity to invest in themes with specific drivers. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: This week the SET is expected to recover or rebound after a sharp fall that already incorporated some of the risks, while the baht is starting to appreciate. We see it as an opportunity to invest in themes with specific drivers:
1) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from oil price if it rises or stays at this already high level in view of concerns that tension in the Middle East will affect oil supply – PTTEP and BCP.
2) Undervalued stocks (price below true valuation) whose prices have fallen into the oversold zone, with strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation (PER and PBV 2023F below 5-year average) – CPALL, TOP, CPN, BDMS and MINT.
3) Stocks with strong and continuous earnings growth, whose prices have beat the market since the beginning of the year – AMATA, BBL, KTB, BCH and KLINIQ.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | AOT: The company will benefit as tourism enters high season, with increasing tourists supporting 4QFY23-1QFY24 profit growth both YoY and QoQ. In the immediate term, the stock has fallen to already incorporate the negatives and YTD price performance still lags other tourism stocks.
BEM: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow QoQ and YoY in tandem with increasing expressway traffic and MRT passengers. 2023 profit is expected to be Bt3.9bn, growing 60.6%YoY. | Today’s reports | Food – Preview 3Q23F: Not good, with wider losses
BAY – 3Q23: Larger ECL than expected
BBL – 3Q23: Decent results, beat consensus slightly
KTB – 3Q23: Decent results, as expected
KTC – 3Q23: In line with estimates
TTB – 3Q23: Beat on NIM and credit cost |
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