กลุ่มปิโตรเคมี – ราคาแนฟทาพุ่งขึ้นทำจุดสูงสุดในรอบ 7 เดือน Range-bound, waiting for FOMC |
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Market today | The SET continues to show negative indicators with next support at 1,515, used as today’s lower bound. Recovery is limited with resistance at 1,530. All eyes are on the FOMC meeting and we expect the index to be range-bound at 1,515-1,530. | Today’s highlights | • OECD expects the world economy to be slowed by high interest rates and a flagging recovery in China’s economy. In 2024, world GDP is forecast to grow 2.7%, lower than 2023’s 3.0%.
• US housing starts in Aug declined by 11.3% to 1.283mn units, the lowest since Jun 2020 and lower than expected, derailed by a spike in mortgage rates.
• Russia is considering collecting export tax on all oil products from Oct 1, 2023 to June 2024 of US$250/tonne, which is significantly higher than the current rate to resolve a fuel shortage problem.
• The prime minister has held discussions with BlackRock about investment in Thailand, promoting clean energy to expand investment and manufacturing; it is interested in investing in sustainability-linked bonds to be issued by Thai government.
• The Department of Internal Trade says manufacturers and service providers plan to reduce prices after energy costs are reduced by the government and 100,000 Thong Fah shops will return to join the digital wallet program.
• The Ministry of Finance plans a year-long pause on loans for SMEs who have debt overdue for more than 90 days due to the effect of COVID-19. There are around 3mn who qualify with total debt of Bt300bn.
• The Ministry of Energy is studying revising the long-term energy price structure to obtain a more suitable pricing mechanism, while free import of oil products will give the transport sector a chance to save cost. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to move between 1,540 and 1,580 without a new factor to stimulate play. Domestically, follow the release of more stimulus from the government. Abroad, keep an eye on the monetary policies of central banks who meet this week: the Fed (Sep 21), BoE (Sep 21) and BoJ (Sep 22). InnovestX and the market expect the Fed to keep the rate flat at 5.25-5.50%, while the BoE and BoJ are expected to keep their tight stance, which will cause the US dollar to weaken. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: There is little on board to move the market as participants wait for the monetary policy meetings of three central banks, the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Companies expected to benefit from the government stimulus packages (cutting electricity and diesel prices, pausing agricultural loans and visa-free entry for Chinese) and whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow YoY or pass bottom – CPALL, CRC, OSP, HTC, AOT, ERW, KCE and HANA.
2) Our 4Q23 top picks – AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE and KTB.
3) Stocks for speculation on better purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price rises (petrodollar theme) – AH, BH, PTTEP and BCP.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | TOP: 3Q23TD refinery margin has shown strong recovery, supported by spread of jet fuel, diesel and gasoline, TOP’s main products. These will support refinery profit, while higher oil price will give further support via stock gain.
BBL: 3Q23 and 2023 profit are expected to show the strongest growth in the bank sector, supported by the greatest decrease in credit cost, higher NIM and upside from sustainable loan growth. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – Naphtha price surges to 7-month high |
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