ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240220_T Range-bound, waiting for decision |
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Market today | The SET is expected to continue moving in a bound between 1380-1400. Technically, the index is waiting for a breakout either way, which will give clearer direction. Moving above 1400 would be a positive sign in the short term, with the next resistance at 1410. On the flip side, a fall below 1380 would be a negative sign, opening up downside, with the next support at 1370. | Today’s highlights | • The NESDC has revised Thailand's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.2%, citing global uncertainties and domestic political conflicts. 2023 GDP growth was 1.9%. The NESDC recommends using monetary measures to support the economy as fiscal measures have been exhausted, especially as household debt remains high and SMEs show signs of financial strain.
• The BoT is preparing to negotiate a proposal to lower the minimum credit card payment from 8% to 5%.
• The PM expressed concerns about low GDP growth and the lack of new money entering the system, saying the government has not been able to utilize its budget fully. He suggested a 25bps interest rate cut and aims to implement the digital wallet in May.
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce expects Thai exports to expand more in 2024 than in 2023, forecasting 2-3% growth with an estimated value of Bt290-293bn.
• The Bundesbank says Germany is showing signs of regression due to external uncertainties, weak public investment, cautious consumer spending, and restricted public investment due to high levels of debt.
• Chinese tourists spent more during the Chinese New Year holidays this year than they did before the COVID-19 crisis in 2019. In China, the PBOC injected 500bn yuan to enhance liquidity but has not reduced interest rates to maintain yuan stability.
• The Singaporean government plans to invest S$743mn over the next five years to develop the efficiency of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and establish a world-class AI hub. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to still be range-bound with no new catalyst, either domestic or external. Investors are waiting for the gradual release of 4Q23 earnings, which are expected to be weak, and US economic figures, also coming out gradually but already in the market to some extent. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound, lacking a new catalyst and awaiting 4Q23 earnings results. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Stocks that benefit from the steady recovery of tourism with more foreign tourists, but this is not yet reflected in stock prices – AOT and MINT.
2) Short-term investors (3-4 months) who want to invest in high-quality dividend stocks during dividend season, for stocks going XD between Mar–May 2024, with expected yield on 2023 (after deducting interim dividend) of over 5% - AP, BCP and KTB.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results.
For the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks whose 4Q23 results may be weaker than expected – BJC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, ZEN, AU, CPF, BTG, AWC and SIRI. | Daily top picks | BEM: Considered a safe stock in a volatile market. 4Q23 net profit is estimated at Bt796mn, growing 32%YoY on increased expressway and MRT traffic, which will bring 2023 profit to Bt3.4bn, up 40%. Profit is expected to grow another 27% in 2024 in tandem with growing traffic and passenger volumes.
TNP: 4Q23 net profit beat estimates, expanding 42%QoQ and 14%YoY, backed by higher sales and good expense control. YoY net profit growth is expected to continue in 1Q24. This company will benefit from government stimulus, and this will be a catalyst for price and upside for earnings forecasts. We recommend buy for trading at no higher than Bt3.20/share. | Today’s reports | BTS – Still searching for bottom
DIF – 4Q23: Core profit in line
PSH – 4Q23: Plunge on low margin | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240220_E |
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