กลุ่มพัฒนาโครงการที่อยู่อาศัย – ปี 2566 สดใสน้อยลง... มีโอกาสเติบโตดีขึ้นด้วยมาตรการกระตุ้น Open to downside |
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Market today | The SET fell below 1,530, creating a negative technical signal, opening it to downside. It is likely to continue falling with next supports at 1,520 and 1,515. A recovery is limited at resistances of 1,543 and 1,550. The index must rise to exceed these upper bounds for signals to return positive. | Today’s highlights | • The cabinet approved to cut electricity rate for Sep-Dec 2023 to Bt3.99/unit, effective immediately; it is considering a gasoline price cut, expected to take effect by the end of this year.’
• NESDC continues to forecast 2023 GDP growth of 2.5-3.0%, but will monitor government stimulus and exports. A survey found Thai people are putting less into savings but poverty is easing.
• FedWatch Tool puts a 99% probability the Fed will stand pat on interest rate at 5.25-5.50% at its Sep 19-20 meeting and 69% probability it will leave rate unchanged at the meeting in November.
• The US homebuilder confidence index in Sep declined 5pts to 45, going below 50 for the first time in seven months, indicating a negative view by homebuilders.
• EIA expects shale oil production in regions of the US will decline for three months beginning Oct to the lowest since May 2023.
• China industrial production in Aug grew by 4.5%YoY, with Aug retail sales growing 4.6%YoY, more than expected.
• Apple has postponed delivery of iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max in some countries, such as the US, UK and India, by at most eight weeks from the former delivery date of Sep 22 due to high demand. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to move between 1,540 and 1,580 without a new factor to stimulate play. Domestically, follow the release of more stimulus from the government. Abroad, keep an eye on the monetary policies of central banks who meet this week: the Fed (Sep 21), BoE (Sep 21) and BoJ (Sep 22). InnovestX and the market expect the Fed to keep the rate flat at 5.25-5.50%, while the BoE and BoJ are expected to keep their tight stance, which will cause the US dollar to weaken. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: There is little on board to move the market as participants wait for the monetary policy meetings of three central banks, the Fed, BoE and BoJ. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Companies expected to benefit from the government stimulus packages (cutting electricity and diesel prices, pausing agricultural loans and visa-free entry for Chinese) and whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow YoY or pass bottom – CPALL, CRC, OSP, HTC, AOT, ERW, KCE and HANA.
2) Our 4Q23 top picks – AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE and KTB.
3) Stocks for speculation on better purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price rises (petrodollar theme) – AH, BH, PTTEP and BCP.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | OSP: The company is expected to benefit from the government stimulus package (e.g., electricity price cut and tourism stimulus). We are still believe it will grab back market share and expect 2023 profit growth of 43.8%, followed by growth of 7.8% in 2024.
BCH: 3Q23 core profit is expected to grow QoQ and reach this year’s high in 4Q23, supported by seasonally more domestic patients, more revenue from foreign patients and a 10% rise in social security payment per head since May 1, 2023. | Today’s reports | Residential Property – Moderate 2023…better off with stimulus |
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