ช่วงสั้นมอง SET ยังผันผวนและเปราะบาง จากความกังวลความเสี่ยงเสถียรภาพทางการเมืองในประเทศ โดยในวันที่ 18 มิ.ย. นี้จะมีการพิจารณา 4 คดีทางการเมืองสำคัญ ได้แก่ คดียุบพรรคก้าวไกล, คดีถอดถอนนายกฯ เศรษฐา, คดีอดีตนายกฯ ทักษิณ และคดี สว. จึงทำให้ SET ยังมีแนวโน้ม Underperform ตลาดหุ้นในภูมิภาค ท่ามกลางตัวเลขยอดการผลิตรถยนต์และการส่งออกของไทยที่คาดจะยังอ่อนแอ ขณะที่การผลิตภาคอุตสาหกรรมของจีนและสหรัฐคาดจะมีการฟื้นตัวต่อเนื่อง ส่วน BoE คาดจะมีมติคงดอกเบี้ยนโยบายที่ระดับ 5.25% แต่จะส่งสัญญาณผ่อนคลายนโยบายการเงินใน 3Q67 ดังนั้นกลยุทธ์ลงทุนจึงแนะนำ “Selective Buy” |
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240618_T Limited recovery, weak signal
|
|---|
Market today | The SET faces political pressure as well as other factors, while funds are still flowing out, limiting any recovery with resistances at 1305 and 1310. Technical indicators are still weak, which may lead the index to continue to slide with next supports at 1290 and 1280. | Today’s highlights | • Neil Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, and Patrick Harker, President of the Philadelphia Fed, have signaled that the Fed will cut interest rate one time this year.
• The ECB President said they are monitoring developments in financial markets after French stock markets fell last week amid concerns over the victory of far-right parties in the election.
• China has started an anti-dumping investigation into pork and pork products imported from the EU, in retaliation to the EU's announcement last week of tariffs on EVs imported from China.
• The PM has instructed the Ministry of Commerce to review the list of goods that will not be included in the digital wallet scheme, particularly imported goods like smartphones and imported electrical appliances; decisions will be announced next week.
• The Deputy Minister of Finance said short-term stock market volatility is mainly due to the political situation affecting confidence. The Ministry of Finance is preparing measures to boost confidence in the Thai stock market, with details on establishing an LTF and a ThaiESG fund expected soon.
• The SET is introducing an enhanced "Uptick Rule" on a per-security basis to replace the Zero-plus Tick rule starting July 1, 2024 as planned for late 2Q24. The SET will provide an explanation of this measure before implementation today.
• This afternoon, the SET will report progress on measures to restore confidence after 16 consecutive trading days of program trading selling Thai stocks worth nearly Bt30bn, and nearly Bt100bn of short selling, as the new measures have not yet taken effect. | Strategy today | In the short term, political instability is keeping the SET volatile and fragile. On Jun 18 there will be consideration on four important political cases: the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, the case attempting to dismiss the Prime Minister, the case against former PM Thaksin and the senate case. This will keep the SET underperforming the region amid expectations of continued weakness in automobile production and exports. China and US industrial production is expected to continue recovering and the BoE is expected to keep interest rate at 5.25% but to signal an easing in monetary policy in 3Q24. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Political risk is making the Thai capital market volatile and fragile and leading the SET to underperform the region. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Global plays: Companies whose profit is expected to continue to recover and benefit from a global recovery sufficient to offset domestic turmoil – KCE, SCGP and PTTGC.
2) Stocks whose 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, with attractive valuations and who are players in industries that have been able to outshine the market YTD – ICT: ADVANC; Tourism: MINT; and Food: TU, BTG and OSP.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, MINT and TU.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP. | Daily top picks | KCE: A global play whose profit is expected to recover in line with the world economy. 2024 core profit is expected to grow by 44.7%, and 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ on high orders for special grade PCB (HDI), which carries a high margin. The company is expected to enter high season in 2H24, plus cost reductions will improve margin.
MINT: One of our top picks in the tourism sector. 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ as Europe enters its high season. Valuation is attractive, trading at 2024F PER of 23x, close to -1S.D. of historical PER, and not yet reflecting the 12% growth expected in 2024 core profit to Bt8bn. | Today’s reports | FTREIT (Initiate coverage) – Capturing the relocation theme | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240618_E |
|
