ช่วงสั้นมอง SET ยังผันผวนและเปราะบาง จากความกังวลความเสี่ยงเสถียรภาพทางการเมืองในประเทศ โดยในวันที่ 18 มิ.ย. นี้จะมีการพิจารณา 4 คดีทางการเมืองสำคัญ ได้แก่ คดียุบพรรคก้าวไกล, คดีถอดถอนนายกฯ เศรษฐา, คดีอดีตนายกฯ ทักษิณ และคดี สว. จึงทำให้ SET ยังมีแนวโน้ม Underperform ตลาดหุ้นในภูมิภาค ท่ามกลางตัวเลขยอดการผลิตรถยนต์และการส่งออกของไทยที่คาดจะยังอ่อนแอ ขณะที่การผลิตภาคอุตสาหกรรมของจีนและสหรัฐคาดจะมีการฟื้นตัวต่อเนื่อง ส่วน BoE คาดจะมีมติคงดอกเบี้ยนโยบายที่ระดับ 5.25% แต่จะส่งสัญญาณผ่อนคลายนโยบายการเงินใน 3Q67 ดังนั้นกลยุทธ์ลงทุนจึงแนะนำ “Selective Buy” |
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240617_TPolitics continues to pressure
Market todaySET recovery is still limited by the political turmoil, with resistances at 1315 and 1320. Tomorrow brings several political issues to follow and the market faces continuing fund outflows with next supports at 1300 and 1290.Today’s highlights• The University of Michigan's US consumer confidence index in June fell to 65.6, lower than analysts' forecast of 71.5, from 69.1 in May.
• The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.0-0.1% and reduced its holdings in Japanese government bonds after raising rates for the first time in 17 years at its March meeting.
• Copper stockpiles on the LME rose 28% in May to a 4-month high. Copper stockpiles in China also increased as China ramped up production of various metals including copper.
• France's finance minister warned that France could face a financial crisis if the far-right or far-left win the upcoming elections, as they have plans for large spending programs.
• The Israeli military announced it will temporarily suspend daily military operations in some areas of the Gaza Strip to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• A US federal judge ruled that Google must face a lawsuit by US antitrust authorities alleging Google illegally monopolized the online advertising technology market.
• The BOI board approved eight investment projects worth Bt57bn, including large projects in bioindustry, clean energy, data centers, hospitals and air transport. It also approved 3-year tax exemptions to support auto parts producers.Strategy today In the short term political instability is keeping the SET volatile and fragile. On Jun 18 there will be consideration on four important political cases: the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, the case attempting to dismiss the Prime Minister, the case against former PM Thaksin case and the senate case. This will keep the SET underperforming the region amid expectations of continued weakness in automobile production and exports. China and US industrial production is expected to continue recovering and the BoE is expected to keep interest rate at 5.25% but to signal an easing in monetary policy in 3Q24. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”.Trading todayPolitical risk is making the Thai capital market volatile and fragile and leading the SET to underperform the region. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Global plays: Companies whose profit is expected to continue to recover and benefit from a global recovery sufficient to offset domestic turmoil – KCE, SCGP and PTTGC.
2) Stocks whose 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, with attractive valuations and who are players in industries that have been able to outshine the market YTD – ICT: ADVANC; Tourism: MINT; and Food: TU, BTG and OSP.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from the EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, MINT and TU.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP.Daily top picksADVANC: 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY from growing tourism-related and mobile phone revenue and a small rise in management expense as cost synergy kicks in. 2024 profit is expected to grow to Bt31.6bn (+10.9%YoY).
CPF: 2Q24 profit is expected to grow and outperform the food sector, growing QoQ from rising livestock prices in Thailand and Vietnam and falling animal feed cost and recovering YoY from losses in 2Q23 on higher overseas swine and domestic livestock prices and the sale of loss-generating businesses in 2H23.Today’s reportsUtilities – PDP2024: Focus on renewables; but timeline shift Click here to read and/or download file Daily240617_E |
