KTB 3Q66 คาดกำไรจะเพิ่มขึ้น 22%YoY (NII สูงขึ้น) และ 2%QoQ (NII สูงขึ้น, ECL สูงขึ้น, opex สูงขึ้น) อีกทั้งมอง Valuation ถูก โดยเทรด PBV 0.6 เท่า เทียบกับ ROE 10% และ PE 6.3 เท่า สำหรับปี 2024 นอกจากนี้ยังมีความเสี่ยงด้านคุณภาพสินทรัพย์ต่ำกว่าธนาคารอื่นๆ
TOP ค่าการกลั่น 3Q66TD ฟื้นตัว คาดช่วยผลักดันผลประกอบการ อีกทั้งราคาน้ำมันที่เพิ่มขึ้นหนุนกำไรสต็อกน้ำมัน มองราคาหุ้นอ่อนตัวสะท้อนความกังวลเหตุน้ำมันดิบรั่วไหลซึ่งปัจจุบันควบคุมได้แล้ว โดย TOP มีประกันหลายฉบับช่วยครอบคลุมความเสียหายที่อาจเกิดขึ้น |
กลุ่มพาณิชย์ – การเข้ามาของผู้เล่นรายใหม่ในอุตฯค้าส่งสินค้าอุปโภคบริโภคของไทย
AEONTS – ผ่านจุดที่แย่ที่สุดไปแล้ว แต่จะฟื้นตัวอย่างค่อยเป็นค่อยไป A break through 1,550 would be a good sign |
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Market today | The SET has begun to recover and is expected to be heartened by the recovery in US stock markets overnight with a resistance at 1,550. A break above this would be a good sign overall with next resistance at 1,560. Supports are at 1,540 and 1,530, where downside is seen as limited. | Today’s highlights | • US reported strong economic data: retail sales in Aug grew by 0.6% (higher than expected), initial jobless claims last week were lower than expected and PPI in Aug grew by 1.6%YoY (higher than expected).
• ECB made its tenth consecutive raise of 25bps, placing refinancing interest rate at 4.5%, marginal loan rate at 4.75% and deposit rate at 4.0%, a record high and signaling an end to the upward interest rate cycle.
• PBOC cut RRR for the second time in 2023 by 25bps to 7.4%, hoping to stimulate domestic liquidity.
• The Ministry of Commerce plans to cut prices within 15 days in response to the measures reducing electricity and oil prices, and give support to agricultural product prices. It emphasized that this will not involve pledging and will use “soft power” to increase exports to turn 2023 export growth to positive.
• The BoT said 10-year bond yield is at 3%, reflecting concerns over increasing new supply, expected to reach 4-5%. The Thai BMA says the market is watching for the government’s loan plan. Increasing yield causes higher financial cost for the government.
• UTCC reported a rise in the Consumer Confidence Index in Aug 2023 from July due to the formation of a government and expectations of more stable politics going forward.
• CRC plans to launch GO Wholesale, for members, focusing on food products. We expect little short-term effect on the industry as it plans to open just four outlets in 2023. | Strategy today | The investment climate in the Thai capital market is seen to have limited downside and be range-bound at 1,540-1,600, supported by positive sentiment from the new government’s policy speech on Sep 11-12, stable oil price at a high level, which benefits Energy and the launch of iPhone 15. Economic issues to follow this week are US CPI (expected to be stable) and the ECB meeting (interest rate expected to be flat). Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound and has limited downside as there is positive sentiment from the new government’s policy announcement. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from policies deemed urgent by the new government with a focus on stimulating purchasing power and tourism – CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and OSP.
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the iPhone 15 launch – COM7 and SYNEX
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | KTB: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow 22%YoY (higher NII) and 2%QoQ (higher NII, ECL and opex), while valuation is inexpensive, trading at PBV of 0.6x compared to ROE of 10% and 2024 PE of 6.3x. Additionally asset quality risk is lower than at other banks.
TOP: 3Q23TD refinery margin recovery is expected to support profit, while rising oil price will support stock gain. The stock price has fallen, already incorporating concerns over the oil leak, which is under control, and well covered by insurance. | Today’s reports | Commerce – New entry in Thailand’s grocery wholesaling
AEONTS – The worst is over, but recovery U-shaped |
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