Weekly Portfolio : ช่วงสั้น SET แกว่งตัวในกรอบจำกัด หลังขาดปัจจัยหนุนและรอดูผลประกอบการ 4Q66 ของ บจ.ไทย กลยุทธ์ลงทุนจึงคงเน้น “ตั้งรับ สะสมหุ้นพื้นฐานรอการฟื้นตัวของตลาด” ใน 3 ธีมหลัก ดังนี้
1) นักลงทุนที่กังวลตลาดผันผวนเชิงลบแนะนำลงทุนในหุ้นตั้งรับซึ่งคาดจะสามารถชนะตลาดได้ โดยมี Beta ต่ำกว่า 1, ราคาหุ้นปรับตัว YTD ดีกว่า SET เลือก ADVANC AOT BDMS TISCO
2) นักลงทุนระยะสั้น (3-4 เดือน) ที่ต้องการลงทุนในหุ้นปันผลคุณภาพดีในเทศกาลจ่ายเงินปันผลและขึ้น XD ในช่วง มี.ค.–พ.ค. นี้ โดยคาดให้ Div. Yield ปี 66 (หลังหักจ่ายระหว่างกาลแล้ว) เกิน 5% เลือก AP BCP KTB ขณะที่นักลงทุนระยะยาวที่ต้องการลงทุนในหุ้นปันผลคุณภาพดีเพื่อสร้างกระแสเงินสดที่ดีต่อเนื่อง โดยคาดให้ Div. Yield ปี 67 เกิน 5% เลือก AH AP BCP KTB PTT TTB
3) นักลงทุนระยะยาวแนะนำลงทุนสะสมแบบ DCA เนื่องจากมองเป็นจังหวะที่ดีที่สุด หลัง SET ปรับลงแรงจนความเสี่ยงลดลงไปมาก และราคาหุ้นอยู่ในระดับ Undervalue มาก โดยเลือก BBL BDMS BEM CPALL PTT และ SCC ซึ่งเป็นหุ้น SET100 ซึ่งเป็นผู้นำในแต่ละอุตสาหกรรม และมี ESG Ratings ระดับ AAA/AA, Valuation ต่ำกว่าค่าเฉลี่ยในรอบ 10 ปี และผลการดำเนินงานยังแข็งแกร่ง
ระยะสั้นแนะนำระมัดระวังหุ้นที่คาดผลประกอบการ 4Q66 อาจอ่อนแอกว่าตลาดคาด ได้แก่ BJC HMPRO ZEN CPF BTG AU AWC SIRI |
ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240215_T Range-bound |
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Market today | The SET is expected to be range-bound, with uncertainty of the timing of a rate cut by the Fed limits any recovery to resistances at 1392 and 1396. The index is entering oversold position, which brings a short-term support at 1377; a fall below this would be bad news with the next support at 1370. | Today’s highlights | • Michael Barr, Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, said the unexpectedly high inflation in Jan makes returning to a 2% inflation rate uncertain. He said the Fed needs to review more data before considering reducing interest rates.
• The EIA reported crude oil inventories increased by 12mn bbl last week, more than market expectations. The Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned of security threats to the US, particularly those related to Russia.
• The UK reported its CPI for Jan remained steady at 4%YoY due to a slowdown in the prices of furniture, household goods and non-alcoholic beverages and food.
• Japan's Finance Minister announced readiness to implement appropriate measures to stabilize the FX market if the yen's rapid depreciation affects Japan's economy, which relies on trade.
• Today's digital wallet board meeting, chaired by the PM, will discuss a plan to borrow Bt500bn, including legal opinions provided by the Council of State, before enacting a law that authorizes the Ministry of Finance to borrow money. The meeting will also discuss suggestions from the NACC and propose setting up subcommittees to inspect the project and develop the system.
• The Prime Minister is set to negotiate with Cambodia to finalize the development of a petroleum field worth Bt20bn and study the establishment of a nuclear power plant. Discussions will include cooperation with France and the EU. The Permanent Secretary for Energy said successful negotiations over the overlapping maritime areas between Thailand and Cambodia could lead to a long-term reduction in electricity costs to Bt3 per unit and include nuclear power plants in the revised Power Development Plan (PDP). | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to still be range-bound with no new catalyst. Investors await the gradual release of 4Q23 earnings, while US inflation is higher than expected. The strategy is “defensive and accumulate fundamental stocks to wait for the market recovery”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound, lacking catalysts and awaiting 4Q23 earnings results. We recommend “accumulate defensive and fundamental stocks to wait for market recovery” in three main themes:
1) Investors who are concerned about market fluctuations are recommended to invest in defensive stocks that are expected to beat the market with beta below 1 and price outperformance vs. the SET YTD – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS and TISCO.
2) Short-term investors (3-4 months) who want to invest in high-quality dividend stocks during dividend season, for stocks going XD between Mar–May 2024, with expected yield on 2023 (after deducting interim dividend) of over 5% - AP, BCP and KTB. Long-term investors who want to invest in high-quality dividend stocks to generate consistent cash flow, with dividend yield expected at over 5% on 2024, we suggest AH, AP, BCP, KTB, PTT and TTB.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly and risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results.
For the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks whose 4Q23 results may be weaker than expected – BJC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, ZEN, AU, CPF, BTG, AWC and SIRI. | Daily top picks | CPAXT: Stock price is likely to outperform the SET as 4Q23 net profit came in higher than expected from a better margin in the B2C business and on leading SSS growth in 2024TD. The business restructure plan is expected to bring synergy, a plus for 2025 net profit. Recommend buy for trading at not above Bt30.50.
BBL: Stock price has fallen 9%YTD, already reflecting a possible policy rate cut. 2024 net profit is expected to grow 7.6%, supported by lower credit cost, loan growth (more FDI inflows into ASEAN) and recovering fee revenue. Valuation is inexpensive and ROE is likely to increase. | Today’s reports | BBL (High conviction) – Valuation cheap, rate cuts already priced in
CPAXT (High conviction) – 4Q23: Beat estimates, next catalysts lined up
KCE – 4Q23: Misses INVX & consensus
OR – 4Q23: Hit by inventory loss
TOP – 4Q23: Lower profit QoQ was as expected | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240215_E |
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