AH – 3Q66: ดีเกินคาดจากกำไรอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน
BDMS – 3Q66: กำไรดีเกินคาด ทำสถิติสูงสุด
BEM – 3Q66: ผลประกอบการออกมาตามคาด
BGRIM – 3Q66: กำไรได้รับผลกระทบจากขาดทุนอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน
BTSGIF – 2QFY67: ได้รับผลกระทบจากขาดทุนจากการวัดมูลค่าเงินลงทุน
DIF – 3Q66: กำไรลดลงเพราะรายได้ลดลง, ดอกเบี้ยจ่ายสูง
PSH – 3Q66: ลดลงทั้งกำไรปกติและกำไรสุทธิ
PTT – 3Q66: กำไรแข็งแกร่งตามคาด
TCAP – 3Q66: ดีกว่าคาดเพราะกำไรเครื่องมือทางการเงิน; dividend yield ดี
WINNER – 3Q66: กำไรแย่กว่าคาด
Stock Note – HANA
Stock Note – NYT
Stock Note – TPAC Range-bound |
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Market today | The SET will swing in a bound between 1,373 and 1,406, while overall technical signal is weak as upper bound is limited at resistances of 1,398 and 1,406. The index must break through this for technical indicators to be positive technical recovery. Supports are at 1,380 and 1,373. Key to follow is a report of US CPI tonight. | Today’s highlights | • The Ministry of Finance and FETCO are preparing to discuss the establishment of an ESG fund, similar in nature to an LTF (Long Term Equity Fund), aiming to raise ~Bt100bn to revive investor confidence. Authorities have confirmed that short-selling has not been behind the continuous sharp fall in stock prices.
• The Ministry of Commerce is preparing to ask the Cabinet to improve measures to control and monitor the sugar industry, including allowing a Bt2/kg price increase at factory gate and on retail shelves. This also involves relaxing export regulations and supporting farmers facing higher sugarcane cultivation costs.
• The Thai Retailers Association believes the digital wallet and e-Refund projects will be able to stimulate the economy depending on the rules. They suggest adjusting the implementation timeline to April instead of May.
• Fitch Ratings has announced Thailand's sovereign credit rating has been maintained at BBB+ with a stable outlook.
• OPEC's Nov report on the oil market says oil demand is expected to increase by 2.46mn bbl/day in 2023, slightly up from the previous forecast of 2.44mn bbl/day.
• China's economic indicators remain weak with slow recovery in consumption and the beginning of a decline in business confidence in the private sector as of October.
• Chevron has resumed natural gas production at the Tamar field in Israel after a shutdown last month for safety reasons. Israel has increased its gas exports to Egypt by 60% due to eased risks, with Egypt using some of it for LNG exports. | Strategy today | Although the Thai capital market is facing high volatility, in the short term the SET is expected to recover as economic figures and world earnings results are not as bad as feared, while domestically there is the possibility an LTF will be set up and extend SSF. However, SET upside is seen to be limited from profit-taking after the end of 3Q23 earnings announcements. Our strategy is selective buy. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: Although the Thai stock market is still facing high volatility, in the short term the SET may recover, though upside is limited. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Big-cap stocks expected to recover in line with the market with low volatility; we pick undervalued stocks whose prices have entered oversold territory and valuations are not stretched (PER and PBV 2023F are below 5-year average.) – BDMS, BEM, BBL GULF and SCGP.
2) Earnings plays whose 3Q23 earnings will be announced this week, with 4Q23 expected to grow YoY to the year’s best quarter – ERW, AOT, CENTEL, ZEN and CRC.
The Ministry of Finance and FETCO are preparing to discuss the setup of an ESG fund of about Bt100bn to revive investment confidence. In line with this, we select stocks in the SETESG index with the following characteristics: 1) stocks with ESG rating of “AAA” or “AA” and 2) stocks whose prices have declined significantly YTD. We found five stocks of interest that are expected to be investment targets – TOP, CRC, SCGP, GULF and ZEN.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF GFPT and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | TOP: The stock is included in the SETESG index with “AAA” SET ESG rating. Valuation is not expensive – price has declined 16%YTD to trade at PBV of 0.6x
(-1.6 SD). GRM is expected to gradually recover over the rest of this year, which will support 2023 profit; there is also upside from current estimate.
CRC: The stock has been included in SETESG index with “AAA” SET ESG rating. Valuation is not expensive; price has declined 17%YTD to trade at a PER of 27.8x, lower than the sector average of 28.3x. 4Q23 is expected to be the best quarter of this year due to high season. It will also benefit in 1Q24 from the e-Refund program. | Today’s reports | AH – 3Q23: Beat estimate from FX gain.
BDMS – 3Q23: Beat estimates to a record high
BEM – 3Q23: In line with expectations
BGRIM – 3Q23: Profit hit by FX losses
BTSGIF – 2QFY24: Hit by revaluation losses
DIF – 3Q23: Down on lower income, high interest
PSH – 3Q23: In line, both core and net profit down
PTT – 3Q23: Strong profit, in line
TCAP – 3Q23: Beat on gain; good dividend yield |
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