กลุ่มปิโตรเคมี – ต้นทุนแนฟทาที่สูงขึ้นกดดันส่วนต่างราคาลดลง Move between 1,535-1,555, watch for US CPI |
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Market today | The SET is expected to move between 1,535-1,555 as investors are waiting for US CPI report tonight to evaluate interest rate outlook. The index is seen to have limited downside with support between 1,530-1,535, and waiting for a recovery signal. Breaking through 1,555 would be a good sign. | Today’s highlights | • Watch the first cabinet meeting, which will discuss the digital wallet, energy price cut, moratorium on agricultural and long-term debt, visa-free entry for Chinese from Sep 25, 2023, to Feb 2024. The prime minister announced he would raise minimum wage to Bt400/day as soon as possible, but the private sector has asked him to wait for economic recovery.
• The Ministry of Transport is ready to start the Bt20/trip skytrain policy, starting with the Red Line (Bang Sue–Rangsit, 10 stations and Bang Sue–Taling Chan, 4 stations) and the Purple Line (Tao Poon-Khlong Bang Pai, 16 stations) within 3 months, with budget for the support estimated at Bt136mn per year.
• The Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported the number of foreign tourists between Jan 1 and Sep 10, 2023 at 18,530,280, generating revenue of Bt775,295mn.
• FTI reported a second month decline in the industrial confidence index in Aug to a one-year low as exports slowed in tandem with the world economy and partners’ weak purchasing power, especially in the US, China and Europe.
• OPEC forecasts strong growth in world oil demand in 2023 and 2024 as there are signs suggesting economies of large countries are stronger than expected. It expects oil demand in 2024 will increase by 2.25MBD.
• Apple will launch new products, led by iPhone 15. Thailand is in Tier 1 and this phone will be available for sale on Sep 22, 2023. | Strategy today | The investment climate in the Thai capital market is seen to have limited downside and be range-bound at 1,540-1,600, supported by positive sentiment from the new government’s policy speech on Sep 11-12, stable oil price at a high level, which benefits Energy and the launch of iPhone 15. Economic issues to follow this week are US CPI (expected to be stable) and the ECB meeting (interest rate expected to be flat). Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be range-bound and has limited downside as there is positive sentiment from the new government’s policy announcement. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: we selected eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from policies deemed “urgent” by the new government with a focus on stimulating purchasing power and tourism – CPALL, CPAXT, HTC and OSP.
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from the iPhone 15 launch – COM7 and SYNEX
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | BBL: 3Q23 and 2023 profit is expected to exhibit the strongest growth in the banking sector, supported by the greatest drop in credit cost, higher NIM with upside and sustainable loan growth.
CRC: Although 3Q23 profit is expected to be stable or decline YoY as retail sales grow at a declining rate with high SG&A to sales, the stock price has already fallen significantly, reflecting this factor, while 4Q23 profit is expected to recover to this year’s high. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – Higher naphtha cost dampens spread |
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