กลุ่มปิโตรเคมี – ราคาแนฟทาที่ลดลงหนุนส่วนต่างราคาเพิ่มขึ้น
SCGP – พรีวิว 3Q66: คาดกำไรอ่อนตัวลง QoQ Range-bound at 1,422–1,440 |
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Market today | The SET is seen as range-bound with supports at 1,430 and 1,422, which are expected to stand after Fed officials continue to express opinions towards a more relaxed interest rate direction. However, technical indicators are still negative; investors are watching today’s Fed Minutes and tomorrow’s US CPI, which limits upper bound to 1,440-1,450. | Today’s highlights | • Several Fed officials have said a rise in long-term US bond yield may lead the Fed to stop the upward cycle in short-term interest rate. This is echoed by ECB officials who say ECB inflation may be at 2% which is its 2025 target.
• China plans to stimulate its economy by raising this year’s deficit budget to reach a GDP growth target of 5% even though it will need additional stimulus to spur the current weak demand.
• A gas line in the Finnish sea connecting with Estonia is leaking for an unknown reason, pushing EU gas price up more than 10%.
• IMF has cut its GDP forecasts for China and EU, saying world growth is still low and inconsistent, though the US economy is still strong.
• Reuters reports sale of Asian stocks by foreign investors amounting to US$11.26bn in Sep, the largest outflow since Jun 2022, spurred by concerns on higher interest rate for longer and rising US bond yield.
• BoT, the anti-money laundering office and the Thai Bank Association have announced that they will utilize self-identification when making deposits to CDMs to increase safety. This will take effect on Nov 11, 2023, and is aimed at preventing money laundering, scams, and possible support to terrorists.
• PTT said the fuel payment of Bt8-9bn from EGAT has been put off, which may increase the burden on financial cost but will not significantly affect profit. It expects EGAT to gradually pay this back. OR will adhere to the government’s decision to set market margin at Bt2/lt. | Strategy today | Last week the SET sank to a new low of 1,429.99, the lowest since Jan 4, 2021, on concerns over the Fed’s intention to keep interest rates higher for longer and slowing in global economies overall, including Thailand. However, in the short term the SET is expected to start to recover and start a rebound after falling to incorporate some of the risks. Our strategy is: opportunity to invest in themes with specific drivers. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: This week the SET is expected to start to recover, rebounding after a sharp fall that incorporated some of the risks, which we see as an opportunity to invest in themes with specific drivers:
1) Undervalued stocks (price below true valuation) whose prices have fallen into the oversold zone, with strong fundamentals and inexpensive valuation (PER and PBV 2023F below 5-year average) – CPALL, TOP, CPN, BDMS and MINT.
2) Stocks with strong and continuous earnings growth, whose prices have beat the market since the beginning of the year – BCP, AMATA, BBL, KTB, BCH and KLINIQ.
3) Speculative stocks if Brent moves closer to US$80/bbl – PTTEP.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY), Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT) and Beverages (CBG has high sugar cost). | Daily top picks | KTB: 3Q23 profit is expected to grow 22%YoY (higher NII) and 2%QoQ (higher NII, ECL and opex), while 2023 profit is expected to grow 22%. The bank is expected to report the highest NIM growth and has lower quality asset risk than others.
GULF: 2H23 core profit is expected to grow YoY and HoH, supported by another IPP, GDP unit 2 (662.5MW), which will start up this month and profit share from Jackson Generation, which is expected to grow HoH from the loss of Bt359mn in 1H23 due to low electricity price. | Today’s reports | Petrochemicals – Lower naphtha price lifts spread
SCGP – Preview 3Q23F: Earnings to soften QoQ |
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