ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240611_TLimited recovery, negative
Market todaySentiment will be burnished by the rise in oil price that will lift the energy sector. However, as a whole, the market is being pressured by politics and fund outflows, limiting recovery at resistance of 1325-1330; we believe it is likely to continue falling with supports at 1310 and 1300.Today’s highlights• Goldman Sachs expects Brent to rise to US$86/barrel in 3Q24, driven by summer travel and energy demand for cooling, resulting in a 1.3 million barrel/day market deficit.
• The Malaysian government is ending diesel fuel subsidies to reduce government spending by around RM4bn/year and curb illegal fuel smuggling out of the country causing billions in losses.
• Apple unveiled an AI feature called Apple Intelligence, integrating OpenAI's ChatGPT into all operating systems like iOS 18, iPadOS 18, macOS Sequoia and visionOS 2.
• Thailand's FETCO reports the investor confidence index remained steady for the fourth month in May, support will come from government economic stimulus and Fed policy, but it will be hampered by offsetting worry between tourism and inflation.
• The Thai economic cabinet discussed measures to boost economic growth above regional levels, targeting GDP growth of ~5% for the long-term and ~3% for the rest of 2024, in tandem with rising tourism to 36.7mn visitors, accelerating investment over 70%, adding Bt30-40bn to investment and issuing over Bt100bn in soft loans for SMEs.
• The BOI is accelerating investment in upstream electronics industries, while the government plans to set up a semiconductor board to develop the ecosystem, attract high-end semiconductor manufacturers and upgrade high-value industries.Strategy today In the short term the SET remains fragile, hurt by increasing political turmoil, which will pressure the market to underperform the region. The MPC is expected to keep interest rate at 2.50% at its meeting this week. No boost is expected from outside the country, with US and China CPIs expected to rise MoM and the FOMC is expected to keep its rate at 5.50% but adjust the dot plot estimate of cutting the rate to less than the previous forecast of three times. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”.Trading todayThe Thai capital market continues to feel the pressure of local political risk, leading the market to underperform the region, while there is no new positive outside the country this week. We recommend “Selective Buy” with four main themes:
1) Stocks whose 2Q24 profit is expected to grow YoY and QoQ, while valuations are attractive and who are players in industries that have been able to outshine the market YTD – ICT: ADVANC; Tourism: MINT; and Food: TU, BTG and OSP.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from EURO 2024 football competition between June 14-July 14, 2024, - ADVANC, TRUE, CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, MINT and TU.
3) Stocks expected to benefit from recovery in manufacturing, especially in China, whose profit has touched bottom but whose stock prices are yet to respond appropriately - KCE, SCGP and PTTGC.
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock – PTTEP.Daily top picksBBL: One of our top bank picks, whose valuation is attractive. It has lower asset quality risk than other banks and loan growth is expected to be outstanding. We have adjusted our 2024 forecast as we not do not expect the BoT to cut interest rate, which raises our 2024F by 5%; profit is forecast to grow 10% in 2025.
TOP: In the short term it benefits from higher oil price, while refinery margin is at bottom and is expected to recover, supported by seasonal demand for gasoline and jet fuel. Profit from the aromatics business is also expected to improve from strong product spread, supported by tight supply in Asia..Today’s reportsBank – Raised 2024F NIM assuming no policy rate cut
Food – Improving overseas swine prices in June to date Click here to read and/or download file Daily240611_E |
