ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240708_T Hopes for a rebound
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Market today | The SET is expected to continue to rebound, supported by hopes for stimulus packages and a possible cut in interest rate by the Fed in September. Resistances are at 1315 and 1320, while supports are at 1300 and 1290, which are expected to able to stand. | Today’s highlights | • Unofficial UK election results suggest Keir Starmer, Labour Party leader, will become the new Prime Minister. In France, exit polls for the second round indicate the left-wing alliance is leading.
• US nonfarm payrolls in June increased at a slower rate as expected. Unemployment rate was higher than anticipated and its highest since October 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut in September.
• Wheat futures rose 3%DoD due to better-than-expected US exports. Corn and soybean futures benefit from dry weather in US growing areas. New York copper futures rose 2.61%DoD.
• The Ministry of Commerce reported June 2024 inflation at 0.62%YoY, rising for the third month but at a slower rate due to stabilizing electricity costs and a slower increase in fresh food prices. The 3Q24 trend is expected to be similar as 2Q24, with full-year forecast at 0-1%.
• The Thai Chamber of Commerce University expects improvement in the Thai economy due to stimulus measures through tourism and accelerated FY2024 budget disbursement (over 70%), injecting an average of Bt45bn/month into the system from July to September.
• The Social Security Office has adjusted its investment portfolio, focusing more on riskier assets to align with the fund's potential. The Government Pension Fund sees SET50 stocks as attractive due to low prices and dividends.
• The Ministry of Finance will announce registration details for the digital wallet via a government app by the end of July. | Strategy today | In the short term, the SET is still fragile and range-bound due to prolonged political uncertainties. The Constitutional Court has scheduled a hearing on the PM’s qualification for July 10 and the Move Forward Party dissolution on July 17. The market is expected to be supported by external factors as the Fed is likely to signal and easing in monetary policy after US CPI slowed in June to 3.1%YoY from 3.3%YoY in May as well as slowing job market figures. Our strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Thai capital market is seen to still be fragile and range-bound while waiting for some political clarity and a new catalyst. We recommend "Selective Buy" with four main themes:
1) Stocks expected to benefit from short covering after the SET implemented the uptick rule on July 1 and which also have SETESG ratings between AAA to A - HANA, TOP, BEM, MINT, OSP, BBL, SCGP and AOT.
2) Stocks expected to benefit from changes in conditions for the ThaiESG fund: raising deductions to up to Bt300,000 and reducing the holding period to five years - ADVANC, CPALL, BDMS, BBL, BEM and GULF.
3) Global plays whose profit is expected to grow and which benefit from global economic recovery over domestic plays, which face multiple uncertainties -SCGP, TU and MINT. (We recommend buy SCGP on price dips when pressured by weak Chinese economic figures.)
4) Tension has eased about the situation in the Middle East, leading Brent down to the lower bound of US$80-90/bbl, which is seen as an opportunity to hedge. For high-risk takers, we recommend an upstream oil stock - PTTEP. | Daily top picks | GPSC: A boost to sentiment from a declining US bond yield is expected, particularly since the worst of the year has passed, with profit expected to gradually increase due to lower natural gas cost. 2Q24 core profit is expected to improve YoY and QoQ from lower natural gas cost and higher contribution from Avada and CFXD. Recommend buy at no higher than Bt39.50/share.
CPALL: 2Q24 core profit and same-store sales are expected to grow YoY, outdoing peers in the Commerce sector. It is seen to be undervalued, currently trading at 2024F PER of 21.6x, -2S.D. of 10-year historical PER, which is opposite to the direction of core profit, which is expected to grow 28% in 2024 from higher sales and lower financial expense. | Today’s reports | CPF (High conviction) – Earnings to hit two-year high and still rising
PTTEP (High conviction) – Not keeping up with the rise in oil price
AEONTS – 1QFY24: Miss on ECL; expect recovery ahead | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240708_E |
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