กลุ่มสื่อสาร – หยุดพักหายใจ
PTTEP – พรีวิว 3Q66: คาดกำไรลดลง QoQ แต่ยังแข็งแกร่ง Range-bound, waiting for US employment data |
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Market today | The SET is expected to be range-bound at 1,430-1,460 as investors are waiting for US nonfarm payroll on Friday to assess the Fed’s interest rate direction. The index has a following point at 1,470. A break above would be a turning sign, but a fall below is negative. | Today’s highlights | • The Ministry of Transport will ask the cabinet on Oct 10 to consider setting a price of Bt20 for the entire skytrain route, to take effect on Oct 14, sooner than the previous expectation of November.
• The Ministry of Commerce reported CPI growth in Sep of 0.30%YoY and it is expected to continue decreasing or turn negative in 4Q23 as a result of the cut in electricity, diesel and goods prices. It has adjusted 2023 inflation forecast from 1.0-2.0% to 1.0-1.7%.
• ERC has cut electricity price to Bt3.99/unit to take effect from Sep 2023. Electricity bills paid in Sep will be discounted in the Oct bill.
• ThaiBMA expects more than Bt150bn to flow out of the Thai bond market this year, concentrated in short-term bonds, due to a wider spread between US and Thai interest rates.
• The prime minister is asking the SET to study extending stock market opening hours to increase trading volume, suggesting it holds public hearings with each type of participant in the capital market and has suggested four guidelines to develop the capital market to attract funds back into the country.
• US initial jobless claims last week increased less than expected, indicating the US labour market is still strong and causing investors to worry the Fed may keep higher interest rate for longer.
• WTO cut world trade forecast for 2023 from 1.7% to 0.8% to factor in the effect of interest rate rises by central banks which hurts purchasing power in the US, EU and Asia.
• The Australian labour union has threatened to resume strikes in two Chevron LNG plants as negotiations have failed, causing LNG price to be volatile in the short term. | Strategy today | Although the SET is expected to rise in October on anticipation of clearer government policies and recovery of China’s economy, in the short term the world economy is dull while US and EU economic data are showing signs of slowing, pressuring the Thai stock market to slow and suppress a recovery. Our strategy is “selective buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: This week the SET is falling heavily, pressured by weakening oil price and a dim world economy. The World Bank cut its GDP growth forecast for ASEAN countries, including Thailand, and this dimmed enthusiasm and pulled the SET down to its lowest since 2021. We recommend “selective buy” in themes with specific drivers:
1) Speculative stocks: we suggest accumulating oversold stocks with good fundamentals and inexpensive valuation (2023F PER and PBV below 5-year average), whose prices will rebound with the SET – CPALL, TOP, CPN, BDMS and MINT.
2) Speculative stocks in the petrodollar theme that benefit from higher purchasing power in the Middle East as oil price rose 10% QoQ in 3Q23 – BH (more patients from the Middle East).
3) Speculative stocks as oil price stabilizes at a high level – PTTEP and BCP; caution is suggested for speculators if Brent exceeds US$100/bbl.
4) Stocks for investment whose 3Q23 profit is expected to grow with good momentum continuing in 4Q23 – BCH, HANA, KCE, AOT, ERW and KLINIQ.
In the medium term we recommend being cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily top picks | BBL: Profit is expected to exhibit the strongest growth in the sector with the highest NIM growth and the greatest benefit from higher interest rates after raising loan and fixed deposit rate by 25bps and 20-25bps, respectively, while keeping savings rate flat, which widened interest spread with upside of 8bps.
AOT: The company benefits from entry into Thailand’s tourism high season as more tourists means more profit (+YoY and +QoQ) in 4QFY23-1QFY24. The price appears to have already discounted the negatives and in terms of YTD performance, stock performance lags other tourism stocks. | Today’s reports | Telecom – Pausing to take a breather
PTTEP – Preview 3Q23F: QoQ fall but still solid |
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