ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240329_T Indicators still weak |
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Market today | The SET’s indicators are still weak, meaning any recovery will be limited, with resistances at 1380 and 1385; the index is likely to continue falling with supports at 1360 and a previous low of 1350. Follow US PCE tonight. | Today’s highlights | • The third estimate of US 4Q23 GDP showed 3.4% growth, higher than the first and second estimates of 3.3% and 3.2%, beating market expectations, driven by consumer and government spending and business investment.
• The OIE reported February MPI at 99.27, down for the seventh month, at 2.84%YoY on lower automobile production. Trade partners, especially China, slowed down, and household debt remains high.
• The Ministry of Finance is considering revising measures to assist the real estate sector by reducing the registration fee from 2% to 1% and the mortgage fee from 1% to 0.01%, which will be applicable for purchases of over Bt3mn but capped to the first Bt3mn.
• The BOI revised investment promotion measures for electronics circuit board (PCB) cluster supply chain investment, aiming to attract over 10 major global companies with an additional 40 companies investing a total of over Bt100bn.
• PwC's CEO Confidence Survey in Thailand found 67% of CEOs are concerned their businesses may not survive in the next 10 years if they continue operating in the same traditional manner due to various pressures such as inflation, global economic slowdown, climate change and GenAI technology.
• The Supreme Administrative Court issued a ruling to reverse the lower court's decision and dismiss the petition by Wind Energy Co., Ltd., a company in the EA Group, to suspend the selection of wind power purchase as per the ERC's resolution. This is viewed as sentimentally positive for stocks in the power plant and renewable energy sectors. | Strategy today | In the short term, the Thai capital market is expected to recover after China signalled a recovery in manufacturing and investment, while the Fed signalled it would interest rate three times this year, as expected. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | In the short term the SET is expected to recover, backed by better Chinese economic figures and Fed signals that it will relax monetary policy. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Speculative stocks after Brent exceeded US$85/bbl, with demand aided by lower recession concerns and the effect on supply from Russian and Ukraine tension. For high risk-takers, we recommend trading PTTEP (long-term oil price up by US$1/bbl raises target price by Bt5/share) and TOP (refinery margin and inventory gain); the rise in price is negative to oil retailing (low marketing margin) and the aviation sector (higher cost).
2) Speculative stocks on the beginning of a downtrend in interest rate – finance (TIDLOR), utilities (GULF) and transportation (AOT).
3) Technically speculative stocks after prices have broken out of a downtrend and NVDR began to turn to a net buy in March – IVL, GULF, PTTGC and GPSC. | Daily top picks | GULF: The company benefits from a downward interest rate cycle, while 1Q24 profit is expected to grow QoQ off higher electricity demand from industrial users after passing low season and the startup of another generation unit, GULF PD (IPP) in March.
TOP: 1Q24 profit is expected to grow QoQ from a recovery of GRM off high crack spread for gasoline and fuel oil and low inventory loss. The stock is trading at PBV 0.7x (-1.4S.D.), slightly higher than the 0.5x in the COVID-19 period. | Today’s reports | LHHOTEL (Initiate coverage) – A Grande yield play | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240329_E |
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