ท่านสามารถอ่านและดาวน์โหลดเอกสารได้จาก Daily240222_T Expect to test 1400 again |
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Market today | The SET moved up outstandingly, generating a positive technical indicator. It is expected to continue to rise to test psychological resistance at 1400. If it can break through, indicators will be positive with the next resistance at 1410. Supports are at 1390 and 1380. | Today’s highlights | • The report from the Jan 30-31 FOMC meeting showed the majority of the Fed members are concerned about the risk of reducing interest rates too quickly. They continue uncertain about how long the current interest rate level should be maintained.
• Aluminium prices rose by more than 2% following reports the US is considering imposing sanctions on aluminium imports from Russia, raising concerns about the potential impact on supply.
• The MoF proposed that the BoT relax the LTV ratio criteria to stimulate the real estate sector. However, the National Housing Authority says the current LTV ratio is appropriate and any relaxation might affect financial stability, saying that it is not a hindrance to first-time homebuyers.
• The DCA held discussions with six airlines to address the issue of high airfares. Short-term measures include increasing flight frequencies during holidays. Long-term solutions involve adjusting price ceilings. Further discussions will be held on Feb 28 before presenting the proposal to the Civil Aviation Board for approval.
• The EV Board approved measures to promote the commercial use of electric vehicles (EVs), offering a two-fold deduction for domestically produced E-Bus and E-Truck expenses with no upper limit. For imported vehicles, the deduction is 1.5X. These measures will be effective until the end of 2025.
• The Gold Traders Association says that many central banks and governments have doubled their gold reserves over the past two years, exceeding one thousand tons or twice their previous amounts in preparation for increased volatility amid the global economic downturn, which has been more severe than anticipated.
• The Life Insurance Association expects the life insurance business to grow by 2-4% this year, aligning with the NESDC's GDP forecast of 2.2-3.2%. Growth will be driven by the increasing trend toward health-consciousness. | Strategy today | In the short term the SET is expected to still be range-bound with no new catalyst, either domestic or external. Investors are waiting for the gradual release of 4Q23 earnings, which are expected to be weak, and US economic figures, also coming out gradually but already in the market to some extent. The strategy is “Selective Buy”. | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: In the short term the SET is expected to be range-bound, lacking a new catalyst and awaiting the release of 4Q23 earnings results. We recommend “Selective Buy” in three main themes:
1) Stocks that benefit from the steady recovery of tourism with more foreign tourists, but this is not yet reflected in stock prices – AOT and MINT.
2) Short-term investors (3-4 months) who want to invest in high-quality dividend stocks during dividend season, scheduled to announce this week (XD between Mar–May 2024), with expected yield on 2023 (after deducting interim dividend) of over 5% - AP, BCP and KTB.
3) Long-term investors are recommended to invest via DCA accumulation as now would be good timing since the SET has fallen significantly, risk is low and stocks are undervalued – BBL, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, PTT and SCC, all of which are in SET100 and are leaders in their industries with ESG ratings of AAA and AA, valuation lower than 10-year historical average and strong operating results.
For the short term we recommend being cautious on stocks whose 4Q23 results may be weaker than expected – BJC, HMPRO, GLOBAL, ZEN, AU, CPF, BTG, AWC and SIRI. | Daily top picks | BDMS: 4Q23 core profit was Bt4.0bn, up 27%YoY and 2%QoQ to a record high and beating estimates, backed by strong revenue and EBITDA margin. The stock has continuously outperformed the market due to strong profit momentum and inexpensive valuation.
KTB: 2024 net profit is expected to grow 12% from lower credit cost due to less management overlay provisions and a slight increase in loan growth and NIM. Valuation is still inexpensive with good dividend yield, with a 2023 DPS expected at Bt0.92 or 5.9% yield. | Today’s reports | BDMS (High conviction) – 4Q23 beat, solid outlook, good valuation
BLA – 4Q23: Miss on premiums, margin and ECLs
SAT – 4Q23: Weak, as expected
TCAP – 4Q23: Miss on non-NII; good dividend yield | | Click here to read and/or download file Daily240222_E |
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