HMPRO – คาดกำไร 2H66 เติบโต YoY Resting to reduce heat |
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Market today | The SET did not break through resistance of 1,580 and fell, a negative technical indicator of resting to reduce heat after a steady rise. Supports are at 1,560 and 1,550. Currently, there is limited upside at resistances of 1,570 and 1,580. Follow US nonfarm payroll tonight. | Today’s highlights | • US PCE in Jul rose 3.3%YoY, higher than the 3.0%YoY forecast; US core PCE in Jul increased 4.2%YoY, close to expectation of 4.1%YoY. Initial jobless claims last week were 228,000, lower than the 235,000 expected.
• Xi Jinping may not attend the G20 meeting in India next week. Li Qiang will attend instead.
• China manufacturing PMI in Aug was 49.7, up from 49.3 in Jul but still below 50, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing.
• Reuters reports Japan 2023 GDP may fall by 0.2% as China, a primary trading party, has suspended imports of all Japanese seafood products.
• Salesforce, a large US software firm, reported a beat in profit and revenue in 2Q23 and has raised its 2023 revenue and profit forecast.
• FTI says the prime minister is considering reducing oil and electricity prices at the first cabinet meeting, which is a good sign. How to help lower cost of living and SME costs and how much to reduce need to be followed.
• BoT says the Bt500bn in digital wallets, 3% of GDP, needs to circulate three times to increase GDP by 3% and it is concerned about rising inflation. The BoT also plans to cut its 2023 GDP forecast as exports and income per capita are still slowing down. | Strategy today | The SET is expected to be range-bound between 1,550-1,560 as the new government settles in, with hopes for stimulus packages from the new cabinet to support investment and fund flows. However, we are still concerned about the global economy overall, especially in China, which may pressure SET upside. Our investment strategy is for "Selective Buy". | Trading today | Weekly portfolio: The SET will be supported by expectations of stimulus from the new government, though the enthusiasm will be tempered by the continued risk of a global economic slowdown. Our investment strategy is “Selective Buy”:
1) Stocks for medium-term investment: highlighting eight stocks across four industries whose 2H23 profit is expected to grow both HoH and YoY - PTT, BCP, KCE, HANA, BDMS, BCH, AOT, and ERW.
2) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from immediate action on economic policy after the formation of a government, particularly in Commerce and Food & Beverage (TNP, CPALL, CPAXT, BJC, OSP and HTC), as these will benefit from the Bt10,000 digital wallet, from a debt moratorium for farmers and specific businesses and a cut in energy costs, all of which will support purchasing power and thereby boost sales.
3) Speculative stocks expected to benefit from a return of fund inflow – KBANK, GULF, CRC and BGRIM.
In the medium term we recommend to be cautious on stocks that are expected to be affected by El Nino, which will erode purchasing power in the agricultural sector: Commerce (GLOBAL), Finance (MTC, SAWAD), Automotive (SAT, STANLY) and Food & Agriculture (CPF and GFPT). | Daily Focus | CPAXT: 2H23 profit is expected to be its sector’s most outstanding in terms of growth (YoY and HoH), supported by lower financial cost after refinancing in Apr and improved sales at both B2B and B2C businesses upon greater business synergy.
BDMS: 2H23 profit is expected to grow HoH on seasonality and YoY on more revenue from foreign patients, returning to pre-COVID level of 30% (from 28% in 1H23). 2023 core profit is expected to grow 12%YoY to Bt14bn. | Today’s reports | HMPRO – Expect YoY growth in 2H23F |
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